World Cup 2022: Predictions & Odds of Each Country Winning

John Yong

John Yong

Last updated 21 November, 2022

The World Cup 2022 has finally kicked off! Here are the prediction and odds of each country winning.

The FIFA World Cup 2022 finally kicked off yesterday on 20 November 2022, as host nation Qatar played and lost 2:0 against Ecuador in the opening match from Group A.

64 matches will be played in total, and the tournament winners will be declared on 18 December 2022, Sunday.

Will South American heavyweights Brazil or Argentina lift the trophy this year? Or will we see a Cinderella story from the other teams participating in the tournament?

Before you start place your bets, which most of us will do on our favourite teams, here are some statistics which might be of interest to you.

Through the use of artificial intelligence (AI), sports data and analytics company Stats Perform has calculated the odds of each country winning the World Cup.

To ensure a well-rounded prediction, the company estimated the probability of every match outcome - win, lose or draw - and factored in betting market odds with its own team rankings.

The team's historic and recent performances are also factored into the equation. Finally, the AI considers each team's opponents and the difficulty of their path to the finals using match outcome probabilities.


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World Cup 2022 Predictions from Stats Perform

Source: BBC
Country Quarter-Finals Semi-Finals Finals Winner
Brazil 63.7% 40.2% 25.3% 15.8%
Argentina 55.3% 36.3% 21.1% 12.6%
France 58.8% 37.3% 21.9% 12.2%
Spain 55.1% 31.6% 17.4% 9.1%
England 56% 30.9% 17% 8.7%
Germany 51% 28.7% 15.4% 7.8%
Netherlands 53.1% 27.5% 14% 7.2%
Portugal 47.2% 24.1% 12.2% 5.8%
Belgium 41.6% 22.2% 11.3% 5.4%
Denmark 39.3% 19.4% 8.5% 3.5%
Croatia 24.6% 10.9% 4.6% 1.8%
Uruguay 27.3% 11.1% 4.5% 1.6%
Switzerland 22.2% 8.3% 3.1% 1.1%
Senegal 20.1% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9%
Mexico 17.8% 7.5% 2.8% 0.9%
Serbia 19.5% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%

As it currently stands, Brazil is the overall favourite to win the Qatar World Cup 2022 with a 15.8% chance of lifting the trophy. They are followed by Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, with a 12.6% of winning the tournament.

The other top contenders to win the World Cup are France (12.2%), Spain (9.1%) and England (8.7%).

Unfortunately for Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo fans, your team only has a 5.8% chance of lifting the trophy on 18 December 2022.

As for host country Qatar, home-ground advantage will not give them the winning edge as the prediction model does not see them, or the other teams not mentioned, as potential winners.


World Cup 2022 Predictions from Oxford University

To further solidify Brazil's odds of winning the World Cup, the University of Oxford has also developed its own prediction model with the help of one of its post-doctorate researchers, Joshua Bull.

Oxford World Cup PredictionSource: @UniofOxford

Using a more mathematical approach, the University of Oxford has predicted Brazil to lift the trophy, beating out Belgium in the finals, while Argentina and France will be the semi-finalists of the tournament.

Sadly, it seems popular teams such as Germany, Portugal, Spain and Netherlands will see an early exit from the tournament.


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Who are the favourites to win World Cup 2022?

Based on odds and predictions, it seems Brazil is the likely champion of the World Cup 2022. However, as we all know, miracles and upsets can happen (remember South Korea's 2:0 against favourites Germany in the World Cup 2018?). 

That's the beauty of football and the reason why it's commonly known as the beautiful game. Despite its simplicity as a sport, there are too many variables to consider, and its sheer unpredictability is what allows it to be a sport beloved by millions, if not billions, of people around the globe.


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